vrijdag 9 maart 2012
Israël moet de Syrische oppositie steunen in daad en woord
Een andere reden waarom Israël zich actief zou moeten bemoeien in Syrië is de historische kans om de as Iran-Syrië-Libanon te breken. De Asia Times komt met een leesbaar artikel over Iran en Turkije die zich beiden willen ontfermen over Syrië. Iran door Assad te steunen en Turkije door, met woorden, Assad aan te pakken:
Het steunen van de Syrische oppositie is de beste kans voor vrede voor Israël. Iran is niet populair bij de man in de straat in Syrië, maar de Turkse populariteit begint ook af te nemen:
The crux of the struggle today, therefore, is Syria. Relations will continue cooperating on bilateral trade, regardless of how much politics divides them, but Syria remains a sticking point in Iranian-Turkish relations.
Iran is worried that regime change in Syria would give the Turks unlimited access to Syria, excluding Tehran from all political, military, cultural, and economic influence. The Turks after all, are strongly allied to the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), which was established in Istanbul last summer, and currently host the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
All talk about a no-fly zone on the Syrian-Turkish border raises red sirens in Tehran, but at the end of the day, the Iranians are unable to go to war for Syria. If the Syrian Army ventures into the northern Syrian city of Idlib, as it did in Homs, then this would place it dangerously near the Turkish border, and the Turks are ready to act, invoking Article 51 of the UN Charter, being "self-defense".
In fact, Erdogan might even see it as a blessing in disguise, giving him the pretext to put his loud words into action. That explains why Iran is very worried. They realize that contrary to what they believed, there is an entire street in Syria, being the majority, that doesn't like them, and has little affection anymore, for Hezbollah.
That doesn't mean the Syrian street likes Erdogan any better. On the contrary, ordinary Syrians are beginning to view him also with plenty of suspicion and scrutiny for saying nothing but loud words since the Syrian uprising began in mid-2011.
Supporting the resistance in Lebanon, however, is no longer enough for Iran to win the minds and hearts of the Syrian people. Also, loud words in favor of the Syrian rebels are also no longer enough for Erdogan to score points with ordinary Syrians.
Een uitgelezen kans voor Israël om meerdere vliegen in een klap te slaan.